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Data:
235.1 280.7 264.6 240.7 201.4 240.8 241.1 223.8 206.1 174.7 203.3 220.5 299.5 347.4 338.3 327.7 351.6 396.6 438.8 395.6 363.5 378.8 357 369 464.8 479.1 431.3 366.5 326.3 355.1 331.6 261.3 249 205.5 235.6 240.9 264.9 253.8 232.3 193.8 177 213.2 207.2 180.6 188.6 175.4 199 179.6 225.8 234 200.2 183.6 178.2 203.2 208.5 191.8 172.8 148 159.4 154.5 213.2 196.4 182.8 176.4 153.6 173.2 171 151.2 161.9 157.2 201.7 236.4 356.1 398.3 403.7 384.6 365.8 368.1 367.9 347 343.3 292.9 311.5 300.9 366.9 356.9 329.7 316.2 269 289.3 266.2 253.6 233.8 228.4 253.6 260.1 306.6 309.2 309.5 271 279.9 317.9 298.4 246.7 227.3 209.1
Seasonal period
12
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Number of Forecasts
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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11
12
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14
15
16
17
18
Algorithm
BFGS
L-BFGS-B
Chart options
R Code
par1 <- as.numeric(par1) nx <- length(x) x <- ts(x,frequency=par1) m <- StructTS(x,type='BSM') m$coef m$fitted m$resid mylevel <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'level']) myslope <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'slope']) myseas <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'sea']) myresid <- as.numeric(m$resid) myfit <- mylevel+myseas mylagmax <- nx/2 bitmap(file='test2.png') op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2)) acf(as.numeric(x),lag.max = mylagmax,main='Observed') acf(mylevel,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Level') acf(myseas,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Seasonal') acf(myresid,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Standardized Residals') par(op) dev.off() bitmap(file='test3.png') op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2)) spectrum(as.numeric(x),main='Observed') spectrum(mylevel,main='Level') spectrum(myseas,main='Seasonal') spectrum(myresid,main='Standardized Residals') par(op) dev.off() bitmap(file='test4.png') op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2)) cpgram(as.numeric(x),main='Observed') cpgram(mylevel,main='Level') cpgram(myseas,main='Seasonal') cpgram(myresid,main='Standardized Residals') par(op) dev.off() bitmap(file='test1.png') plot(as.numeric(m$resid),main='Standardized Residuals',ylab='Residuals',xlab='time',type='b') grid() dev.off() bitmap(file='test5.png') op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2)) hist(m$resid,main='Residual Histogram') plot(density(m$resid),main='Residual Kernel Density') qqnorm(m$resid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot') qqline(m$resid) plot(m$resid^2, myfit^2,main='Sq.Resid vs. Sq.Fit',xlab='Squared residuals',ylab='Squared Fit') par(op) dev.off() load(file='createtable') a<-table.start() a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'Structural Time Series Model',6,TRUE) a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,'Level',header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,'Slope',header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,'Seasonal',header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,'Stand. Residuals',header=TRUE) a<-table.row.end(a) for (i in 1:nx) { a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE) a<-table.element(a,x[i]) a<-table.element(a,mylevel[i]) a<-table.element(a,myslope[i]) a<-table.element(a,myseas[i]) a<-table.element(a,myresid[i]) a<-table.row.end(a) } a<-table.end(a) table.save(a,file='mytable.tab')
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0 seconds
R Server
Big Analytics Cloud Computing Center
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