Send output to:
Browser Blue - Charts White
Browser Black/White
CSV
Data:
315.42 316.32 316.49 317.56 318.13 318.00 316.39 314.66 313.68 313.18 314.66 315.43 316.27 316.81 317.42 318.87 319.87 319.43 318.01 315.75 314.00 313.68 314.84 316.03 316.73 317.54 318.38 319.31 320.42 319.61 318.42 316.64 314.83 315.15 315.95 316.85 317.78 318.40 319.53 320.41 320.85 320.45 319.44 317.25 316.12 315.27 316.53 317.53 318.58 318.92 319.70 321.22 322.08 321.31 319.58 317.61 316.05 315.83 316.91 318.20 319.41 320.07 320.74 321.40 322.06 321.73 320.27 318.54 316.54 316.71 317.53 318.55 319.27 320.28 320.73 321.97 322.00 321.71 321.05 318.71 317.65 317.14 318.71 319.25 320.46 321.43 322.22 323.54 323.91 323.59 322.26 320.21 318.48 317.94 319.63 320.87 322.17 322.34 322.88 324.25 324.83 323.93 322.39 320.76 319.10 319.23 320.56 321.80 322.40 322.99 323.73 324.86 325.41 325.19 323.97 321.92 320.10 319.96 320.97 322.48 323.52 323.89 325.04 326.01 326.67 325.96 325.13 322.90 321.61 321.01 322.08 323.37 324.34 325.30 326.29 327.54 327.54 327.21 325.98 324.42 322.91 322.90 323.85 324.96 326.01 326.51 327.01 327.62 328.76 328.40 327.20 325.28 323.20 323.40 324.64 325.85 326.60 327.47 327.58 329.56 329.90 328.92 327.89 326.17 324.68 325.04 326.34 327.39 328.37 329.40 330.14 331.33 332.31 331.90 330.70 329.15 327.34 327.02 327.99 328.48 329.18 330.55 331.32 332.48 332.92 332.08 331.02 329.24 327.28 327.21 328.29 329.41 330.23 331.24 331.87 333.14 333.80 333.42 331.73 329.90 328.40 328.17 329.32 330.59 331.58 332.39 333.33 334.41 334.71 334.17 332.88 330.77 329.14 328.77 330.14 331.52 332.75 333.25 334.53 335.90 336.57 336.10 334.76 332.59 331.41 330.98 332.24 333.68 334.80 335.22 336.47 337.59 337.84 337.72 336.37 334.51 332.60 332.37 333.75 334.79 336.05 336.59 337.79 338.71 339.30 339.12 337.56 335.92 333.74 333.70 335.13 336.56 337.84 338.19 339.90 340.60 341.29 341.00 339.39 337.43 335.72 335.84 336.93 338.04 339.06 340.30 341.21 342.33 342.74 342.07 340.32 338.27 336.52 336.68 338.19 339.44 340.57 341.44 342.53 343.39 343.96 343.18 341.88 339.65 337.80 337.69 339.09 340.32 341.20 342.35 342.93 344.77 345.58 345.14 343.81 342.22 339.69 339.82 340.98 342.82 343.52 344.33 345.11 346.88 347.25 346.61 345.22 343.11 340.90 341.17 342.80 344.04 344.79 345.82 347.25 348.17 348.75 348.07 346.38 344.52 342.92 342.63 344.06 345.38 346.12 346.79 347.69 349.38 350.04 349.38 347.78 345.75 344.70 344.01 345.50 346.75 347.86 348.32 349.26 350.84 351.70 351.11 349.37 347.97 346.31 346.22 347.68 348.82 350.29 351.58 352.08 353.45 354.08 353.66 352.25 350.30 348.58 348.74 349.93 351.21 352.62 352.93 353.54 355.27 355.52 354.97 353.74 351.51 349.63 349.82 351.12 352.35 353.47 354.51 355.18 355.98 356.94 355.99 354.58 352.68 350.72 350.92 352.55 353.91
Include mean?
FALSE
FALSE
TRUE
Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter (lambda)
0.2
1
-2.0
-1.9
-1.8
-1.7
-1.6
-1.5
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
Degree of non-seasonal differencing (d)
1
0
1
2
Degree of seasonal differencing (D)
1
0
1
Seasonal Period (s)
12
1
2
3
4
6
12
Maximum AR(p) order
3
0
1
2
3
Maximum MA(q) order
1
0
1
Maximum SAR(P) order
2
0
1
2
Maximum SMA(Q) order
1
0
1
Chart options
R Code
library(lattice) if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ try1 <- arima.out$coef try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 vector[maxi] <- 0 list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) } arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) names <- NULL if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') mylist[[1]] <- arima.out last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) mystop <- FALSE i <- 1 coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] i <- 2 aic <- arima.out$aic while(!mystop){ mylist[[i]] <- arima.out arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) mystop <- !last.arma$continue coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] i <- i+1 } list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) } arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 coeff <- coeff[1:k,] pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] coeff[coeff==0] <- NA n <- ncol(coeff) if(missing(choix)) choix <- k layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, 3,3,3,2, 3,3,3,4, 5,6,7,7),nr=4), widths=c(10,35,45,15), heights=c(30,30,15,15)) couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) ticks <- pretty(coeff) par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) title('aic',line=2) par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), ytop = rep(1,50), ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) axis(1,ticks) rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' else symb = 'black' polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), col=symb) if(j==choix) { rect(xleft=i-.5, xright=i+.5, ybottom=k-j+1.5, ytop=k-j+.5, lwd=4) text(i, k-j+1, round(coeff[j,i],2), cex=1.2, font=2) } else{ rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) } } axis(3,1:n,noms) par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') for(i in 0:3){ polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), col=cols[i+1]) text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) } text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) box() residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) acf(residus,main='') title('acf',line=.5) par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) pacf(residus,main='') title('pacf',line=.5) par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) qqnorm(residus,main='') title('qq-norm',line=.5) qqline(residus) residus } if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) bitmap(file='test1.png') resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) dev.off() resid bitmap(file='test2.png') acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') dev.off() bitmap(file='test3.png') pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') dev.off() bitmap(file='test4.png') cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') dev.off() bitmap(file='test5.png') hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') dev.off() bitmap(file='test6.png') densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') dev.off() bitmap(file='test7.png') qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') qqline(resid) dev.off() ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 load(file='createtable') a<-table.start() a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) for (i in 1:ncols) { a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) } a<-table.row.end(a) for (j in 1:nrows) { a<-table.row.start(a) mydum <- 'Estimates (' mydum <- paste(mydum,j) mydum <- paste(mydum,')') a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) for (i in 1:ncols) { a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) } a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) for (i in 1:ncols) { mydum <- '(' mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') mydum <- paste(mydum,')') a<-table.element(a,mydum) } a<-table.row.end(a) } a<-table.end(a) table.save(a,file='mytable.tab') a<-table.start() a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) a<-table.row.end(a) for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) a<-table.row.end(a) } a<-table.end(a) table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
Compute
Summary of computational transaction
Raw Input
view raw input (R code)
Raw Output
view raw output of R engine
Computing time
1 seconds
R Server
Big Analytics Cloud Computing Center
Click here to blog (archive) this computation