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Data:
0.626376636075742 -0.034212346170877 -0.367988102024403 1.34789341434228 0.105295399765714 0.631911691854541 -0.00545647626205389 0.0787036892154595 0.17228626898176 1.20089073320697 0.916151532519078 2.32950824790645 -1.15155086347263 0.708139285411481 0.370466084760058 -1.0614713000332 0.351339814730486 -1.68556734967629 0.75630042308445 1.39747549704555 -1.21036565984393 0.0943825034764629 -0.0318033886873191 0.111458385110762 -0.422613588024829 0.37709970681856 0.225423906510449 2.27934596672571 1.98563165761678 2.50568356677492 0.432443988777843 -0.626236411004014 -0.623853024372255 0.574450877612611 -1.28520730347771 -0.28624550430813 -1.87607745370276 -1.20571389062707 -1.7461504749802 -1.68362509821044 0.817906231391347 -0.525460398564945 1.24103657111604 -0.293860985980223 -0.57141760930959 -1.72150206950289 -1.86398807636765 -0.0777784929055071 0.712327195928056 -0.968543172896413 0.174503904922733 -0.107199388987987 -0.855940754212454 -3.88484491029885 -0.0478957565623242 -0.756611840617067 0.0669992400461389 -0.566926673889187 0.881556732385792 -1.08795311152731 -0.439045796460847 -1.44449818911372 -1.29923027034638 2.09228745443317 0.420785828922861 0.323420161466657 0.468823996916637 -0.909126709983898 -1.20053454837275 -0.742818852956211 1.07869279120501 1.64969961092855 1.15352757528614 -3.41964539457134 1.8911088002763 1.1113859417188 -0.488118061184369 -0.234572712387059 0.752789054437983 -0.0856337249636645 -0.99268215953117 -2.44344064402837 1.58385886265422 0.132118364576253 -0.514889572769859 1.26891787294064 -0.53733018127833 -1.03661590606655 1.24151416867565 -0.788052780804622 0.555322393863541 1.36072886463395 -0.928214469443543 -0.582306436087971 0.0266502757167841 1.76054187791623 -0.686531598218372 -0.648267468511149 1.88340587425316 0.262235146899775 1.23264864726821 -0.00244842211960888 -1.78283803901476 1.62460258765304 0.377021733473789 -1.88587064494836 1.24013024663926 -0.238500395669143 -0.423126403522753 -0.347136666571969 -0.49312091610743 -1.23561790577962 1.6396391303993 -0.19723145997242 0.273341944209825 -0.896927404506461 -1.8797494355331 -0.969444567803295 1.00311896091236 -0.241775975833826 -0.536463930724232 0.205200364307018 0.267456612160251 -1.63649519201675 1.76446000224156 -0.0539650212767986 3.80482871303988 1.8457972966457 -1.20496693701546 -0.598357421121281 -0.50931695800827 0.596799376554163 1.11402564013826 0.572772166038652 -0.576511493686522 0.431819631394805 -0.456738938339048 0.882707797022006 0.421128522423517 1.64367377678128 -0.514265701088785 -0.695490436898843
Include mean?
TRUE
FALSE
TRUE
Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter (lambda)
1
1
-2.0
-1.9
-1.8
-1.7
-1.6
-1.5
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
Degree of non-seasonal differencing (d)
0
0
1
2
Degree of seasonal differencing (D)
1
0
1
Seasonal Period (s)
12
1
2
3
4
6
12
Maximum AR(p) order
3
0
1
2
3
Maximum MA(q) order
1
0
1
Maximum SAR(P) order
1
0
1
2
Maximum SMA(Q) order
1
0
1
Chart options
R Code
par9 <- '1' par8 <- '1' par7 <- '1' par6 <- '3' par5 <- '12' par4 <- '1' par3 <- '0' par2 <- '1' par1 <- 'FALSE' library(lattice) if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ try1 <- arima.out$coef try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 vector[maxi] <- 0 list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) } arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) names <- NULL if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') mylist[[1]] <- arima.out last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) mystop <- FALSE i <- 1 coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] i <- 2 aic <- arima.out$aic while(!mystop){ mylist[[i]] <- arima.out arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) mystop <- !last.arma$continue coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] i <- i+1 } list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) } arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 coeff <- coeff[1:k,] pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] coeff[coeff==0] <- NA n <- ncol(coeff) if(missing(choix)) choix <- k layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, 3,3,3,2, 3,3,3,4, 5,6,7,7),nr=4), widths=c(10,35,45,15), heights=c(30,30,15,15)) couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) ticks <- pretty(coeff) par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) title('aic',line=2) par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), ytop = rep(1,50), ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) axis(1,ticks) rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' else symb = 'black' polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), col=symb) if(j==choix) { rect(xleft=i-.5, xright=i+.5, ybottom=k-j+1.5, ytop=k-j+.5, lwd=4) text(i, k-j+1, round(coeff[j,i],2), cex=1.2, font=2) } else{ rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) } } axis(3,1:n,noms) par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') for(i in 0:3){ polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), col=cols[i+1]) text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) } text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) box() residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) acf(residus,main='') title('acf',line=.5) par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) pacf(residus,main='') title('pacf',line=.5) par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) qqnorm(residus,main='') title('qq-norm',line=.5) qqline(residus) residus } if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) bitmap(file='test1.png') resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) dev.off() resid bitmap(file='test2.png') acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') dev.off() bitmap(file='test3.png') pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') dev.off() bitmap(file='test4.png') cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') dev.off() bitmap(file='test5.png') hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') dev.off() bitmap(file='test6.png') densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') dev.off() bitmap(file='test7.png') qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') qqline(resid) dev.off() ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 load(file='createtable') a<-table.start() a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) for (i in 1:ncols) { a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) } a<-table.row.end(a) for (j in 1:nrows) { a<-table.row.start(a) mydum <- 'Estimates (' mydum <- paste(mydum,j) mydum <- paste(mydum,')') a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) for (i in 1:ncols) { a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) } a<-table.row.end(a) a<-table.row.start(a) a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) for (i in 1:ncols) { mydum <- '(' mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') mydum <- paste(mydum,')') a<-table.element(a,mydum) } a<-table.row.end(a) } a<-table.end(a) table.save(a,file='mytable.tab') a <-table.start() a <- table.row.start(a) a <- table.element(a,'Menu of Residual Diagnostics',2,TRUE) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <- table.element(a,'Description',1,TRUE) a <- table.element(a,'Link',1,TRUE) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'Histogram',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_histogram.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'Central Tendency',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_centraltendency.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'QQ Plot',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_fitdistrnorm.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'Kernel Density Plot',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_density.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'Skewness/Kurtosis Test',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_skewness_kurtosis.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'Skewness-Kurtosis Plot',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_skewness_kurtosis_plot.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'Harrell-Davis Plot',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_harrell_davis.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'Bootstrap Plot -- Central Tendency',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_bootstrapplot1.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'Blocked Bootstrap Plot -- Central Tendency',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_bootstrapplot.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'(Partial) Autocorrelation Plot',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_autocorrelation.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'Spectral Analysis',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_spectrum.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'Tukey lambda PPCC Plot',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_tukeylambda.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <-table.element(a,'Box-Cox Normality Plot',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_boxcoxnorm.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a <- table.row.start(a) a <- table.element(a,'Summary Statistics',1,header=TRUE) a <- table.element(a,hyperlink( paste('https://supernova.wessa.net/rwasp_summary1.wasp?convertgetintopost=1&data=',paste(as.character(resid),sep='',collapse=' '),sep='') ,'Compute','Click here to examine the Residuals.'),1) a <- table.row.end(a) a<-table.end(a) table.save(a,file='mytable7.tab')
Compute
Summary of computational transaction
Raw Input
view raw input (R code)
Raw Output
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Computing time
1 seconds
R Server
Big Analytics Cloud Computing Center
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